GMH’s Predictions, Part 2: Mississippi through Wyoming (in alphabetical order of abbreviation)

And here’s part 2.

By the way, the results of my predictions are:

Senate: +8

House: +35 (+38-3)

Governorships: +1 (Missouri)

President EV: 252 + 9(CO) + 27(FL) + 7(IA) + 11(MO) + 15(NC) + 5(NM) + 5(NV) + 20(OH) + 13(VA) = 364 EV

These predictions do NOT count the LA-04 general election, the projected GA-Sen runoff, or a legislature-decided Vermont governorship.  (Thus, there is a possible +9 Senate, +37 House, and +2 governorships if you count Pollina as a Democrat (or Symington if she actually wins by legislature).)

PART TWO: Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Wyoming

MS-Pres: down-dash, lean R, R keep

MS-Sen*: down-dash, lean R, R keep (OH HOW I WISH AND HOPE I AM WRONG ABOUT THIS)

MS-01: up-dash, likely D, D keep

MS-03: down, likely R, R keep

MT-Pres: down-dash, lean R, R keep

NC-Pres: dash, tossup, D gain (+15 EV)

NC-Sen: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 Senate) (widest margin of NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NC-Gov)

NC-05: down-dash, lean R, R keep (though once again, I’d love to be wrong about this)

NC-08: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

NC-10: down-dash, lean R, R keep (same comment as for NC-05)

NC-Gov: dash, tossup, D hold (closest of NC-Pres, NC-Sen, and NC-Gov)

ND-Pres: down-dash, lean R, R keep

NE-Sen: down, likely R, R keep (aww…Kleeb should have run again in NE-03)

NE-02Pres: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 EV)

NE-02: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

NH-Pres: up-dash, likely D, D keep

NH-Sen: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+1 Senate)

NH-01: up-dash, lean D, D keep

NH-02: up, likely D, D keep

NJ-Sen: up, safe D, D keep

NJ-03: up-dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

NJ-04: down-dash, lean R, R keep

NJ-05: down-dash, tossup, R keep

NJ-07: up-dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

NM-Pres: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+5 EV)

NM-Sen: up, likely D, D gain (+1 Senate)

NM-01: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

NM-02: up-dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

NM-03: up, safe D, D keep

NV-Pres: dash, lean D, D gain (+5 EV)

NV-02: down-dash, leans R, R keep (unfortunately, though of course I’d love to be wrong)

NV-03: dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

NY-13: (double?) up, safe D, D gain (+1 House)

NY-19: up, likely D, D keep

NY-20: up, likely D, D keep

NY-24: up, safe D, D keep

NY-25: up, likely D, D gain (+1 House)

NY-26: down-dash, lean R, R keep

NY-29: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

OH-Pres: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+20 EV)

OH-01: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

OH-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep

OH-03: down-dash, tossup, R keep (this might be a dark horse, and I hope I’m wrong!)

OH-07: dash, tossup, R keep (same comment as for OH-03)

OH-12: down, lean R, R keep

OH-14: down-dash, lean R, R keep (same comment as for OH-03)

OH-15: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

OH-16: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 House)

OK-Sen: down, likely R, R keep (DAMN YOU INHOFE)

OK-01: down, likely R, R keep (sorry)

OR-Pres: up, safe D, D keep

OR-Sen: up-dash, lean D, D gain (+1 Senate)

OR-05: up, safe D, D keep

PA-Pres: up, likely D, D keep

PA-03: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

PA-04: up, likely D, D keep

PA-05: down-dash, tossup, R keep

PA-06: down, likely R, R keep

PA-07: up, likely D, D keep

PA-08: up, safe D, D keep

PA-10: up-dash, likely D, D keep

PA-11: down-dash, lean R, R gain (-1 House)

PA-12: up-dash, lean D, D keep (whew?)

PA-15: down-dash, tossup, R keep (but what if I’m wrong? 🙂 )

PA-18: down, lean R, R keep

RI-none: (sorry, no competitive federal-level or gubernatorial races in Rhode Island)

SC-Pres: down, likely R, R keep

SC-Sen: down, lean R, R keep (if Conley wins, something strange will have happened)

SC-01: down-dash, tossup, R keep (I really hope I’m wrong about this one too!  Politics1 predicts that I will be!)

SC-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep

SD-Pres: down, likely R, R keep

TX-Pres: down-dash, likely R, R keep

TX-Sen: down-dash, lean R, R keep (disappointing…)

TX-07: down-dash, tossup, R keep (I wish otherwise)

TX-10: down-dash, tossup, R keep (I wish otherwise too, and this might be more likely to flip than TX-07)

TX-22: down-dash, tossup, R gain (-1 House) (I REALY HOPE I’M WRONG-GO LAMPSON!!!)

TX-23: up, safe D, D keep

UT-02: up, safe D, D keep

VA-Pres: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+13 EV)

VA-Sen: double up, safe D, D gain (+1 Senate)

VA-02: dash, tossup, R keep (I hope otherwise!)

VA-05: down-dash, tossup, R keep (same comment as for VA-02)

VA-10: dash, tossup, R keep (same comment as for VA-10, and I can’t rank these three either)

VA-11: up-dash, likely D, D gain (+1 House)

VT-Gov: down, likely R, R keep? (based on whether Douglas gets over 50% and if not the leg. decides)

WA-Pres: up, safe D, D keep

WA-02: up, safe D, D keep

WA-04: down, likely R, R keep

WA-08: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House)

WA-Gov: dash, lean D, D keep

WI-Pres: up, safe D, D keep

WI-08: up, likely D, D keep

WV-Pres: down-dash, likely R, R keep

WV-02: down-dash, lean R, R keep (again, I’d love to be wrong!)

WY-Sen: (double?) down, safe R, R keep

WY-AL: dash, tossup, D gain (+1 House) (this is a hard one to predict, and I think it’ll be a small margin for either D or R…and I’m gonna guess D)